BATTLE FOR UTTARAKHAND 2027: BJP Eyes Hat-Trick Under Dhami, Congress Banks on Anti-Incumbency, UKD Struggles Amid Internal Rifts

Sunil Negi
Dehradun, 27 August 2026

The elections to the Uttarakhand assembly are likely to be held in the initial months of 2027. The three political parties mainly the national parties, the BJP and Congress including the Uttarakhand Kranti Dal have tightened their belts and have started the meetings of evaluation and possibilities. While the ruling BJP is still very much confident of winning the state assembly election for the third consecutive term, the main opposition Congress is highly optimistic of banking on the anti incumbency factor of the BJP.

BJP: Confident of Hat-Trick Under Dhami

There are reports that the BJP central leadership may contest the 2027 assembly election keeping the incumbent chief minister Pushkar Singh Dhami as its chief ministerial face for the third term as well. It is believed that prime minister Narendra Modi and union home minister Amit Shah immensely rely on him and his leadership. He is considered as the best bet for BJP reveal sources.

The confidence stems from multiple factors. Despite being the youngest CM of Uttarakhand, Dhami has successfully managed to balance the RSS, the central leadership and the state organization. His government claims major achievements – strict anti-conversion law, anti-cheating law after UKSSSC paper leak, action against land jihad and encroachments, Uniform Civil Code bill becoming the first state to implement UCC, improved road and air connectivity under PM’s guidance, and keeping Uttarakhand free from communal polarization.

Despite Pauri Garhwal MP and BJP national media incharge Anil Baluni and Haridwar MP and former CM Trivendra Singh Rawat trying their best to replace Dhami internally and clandestinely, the later impressed the central leadership immensely securing his future chief ministerial berth completely with both the above detractors given their old responsibilities and asked to nurse their constituencies, ensuring that maximum MLAs won from their parliamentary constituencies.

According to highly placed sources in Delhi, both Baluni and Trivendra Singh Rawat were told clearly to focus on their Lok Sabha seats – Pauri and Haridwar – and ensure that out of 14 assembly segments each in their parliamentary constituencies, BJP wins at least 10-11 seats. Their national duties will remain but CM race is closed for 2027.

The BJP’s internal survey reportedly shows that while anti-incumbency of 10 years exists, there is no strong anti-Dhami wave personally. The party plans to fight on Modi’s face + Dhami’s clean image + double engine + UCC + infrastructure push.

Congress: Peace Before Storm? Four Power Centres, One Chair

If we talk of the Congress party of Uttarakhand there seems to be quite a peace these days with no internal wranglings as used to be earlier. Sources reveal that this silence and peace is the pre silence before the eruption of a thunderstorm of infighting.

Today in Uttarakhand Congress, in may believe or not but there are unambiguously four power centres and CM claimants starting from veteran leader and former CM Harish Rawat, right term Chakrata Congress Lawmaker Pritam Singh, Ganesh Godiyal, the incumbent chief of Uttarakhand Congress and Dr. Harak Singh Rawat, the chairman of the Congress election conduction committee.

All these four claimants for the Uttarakhand chief ministerial posts are senior most leaders of the Congress who had been loyal all these years except Dr. Harak Singh rock solidly standing with the Congress party during its thick and thin.

While Harish Rawat had enjoyed the fruits of power as the union minister twice and state CM once the rest of the above leaders have been cabinet ministers several times but not CM. Ganesh Godiyal though had never been the cabinet minister except holding the chairmanship of Badarinath Kedarnath Temple Committee, a state minister.

Adding more facts to the Congress puzzle:

– Harish Rawat (78) remains the most popular face in the hills, still commands Garhwali-Thakur-Brahmin and minority vote, but age and 2022 loss from Lalkuan haunts him. His daughter Anupama Rawat is also active.
– Pritam Singh, six-time MLA from Chakrata, former PCC chief and Leader of Opposition, has a stronghold in Jaunsar-Bawar tribal belt and deep RSS-Congress network. Considered most disciplined and acceptable to all factions.
– Ganesh Godiyal, Brahmin face from Garhwal, PCC chief since 2021, close to Rahul Gandhi, lost from Srinagar in 2022 but gained respect for taking on BJP on Ankita Bhandari case and paper leak agitations.
– Dr. Harak Singh Rawat, the most colourful and controversial, former BJP minister who returned to Congress in 2022, now heads the crucial Election Conduction Committee. He brings money, muscle and management of 8-10 seats in Garhwal, but his loyalty switch is still viewed with suspicion by old Congressmen.

Congress is also banking on Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo impact, Priyanka Gandhi’s women-centric pitch, and local issues. The party has started Nyay Panchayat-level meetings and is finalizing its manifesto around Old Pension Scheme, free electricity 300 units, Rs 1500 to women, jobs to youth, and CBI probe into Ankita Bhandari and UKSSSC scams.

Anti-Incumbency – BJP’s Achilles Heel

Since BJP has already ruled Uttarakhand for ten long years with hundreds of complaints and unfulfilled promises generating the anti incumbency against it, the opinion polls are still giving the BJP a slight edge over Congress. However the Congress party terms these opinion polls as the planted ones and extremely confident of returning back to power.

There are undoubtedly umpteen drawbacks against the ruling BJP in Uttarakhand with the state government not coming true to the peoples expectations with so many scams taking place, scams of cheating of UKSSSC, Ankita Bhandari brutal murder case, increasing inflation, corruption everywhere and deteriorating law and order situation with massive fiscal deficit etc are few examples but there are still more to be narrated in the near future.

To add more concrete facts to this anti-incumbency list which Congress is making its main weapon:

-UKSSSC / UKPSC Paper Leak Scam: Over 60 arrests, but youth still angry as 2 lakh aspirants affected.
– Ankita Bhandari Murder Case: 19-year-old receptionist murdered in September 2022, son of BJP leader arrested. Case still in court, Congress alleges VIP name being protected. It has become a major emotional issue for hill women.
– Recruitment Scams in Assembly: Backdoor appointments during 2017-22 exposed.
– Inflation & Unemployment: Migration from hills continues at 12% annually despite BJP’s reverse migration claim. Apple, kiwi farmers upset over MSP.
– Joshimath Sinking, Silkyara Tunnel Collapse: Development vs ecology debate.
– Fiscal Deficit: State debt has crossed Rs 95,000 crores, nearly 30% of GSDP.

UKD – The Regional Hope Still Divided

If BJP loses and Congress forms the claim there is a possibility of infighting in the party on account of the chief ministerial candidate. The third regional party UKD has also come in the electoral playground with immense confidence but as usual the internal wranglings and indications of division in the party have come up with the media too highlighting the controversy to the core bringing blot on the regional party’s image.

UKD, the party that fought for separate statehood, is trying to revive itself on issues of original domicile 1950, strong land laws, 80% jobs to locals, and Gairsain as permanent capital. Led by Kashi Singh Airy and Mohit Dimri factions, it hopes to benefit if both national parties disappoint. But two factions, lack of funds, and absence of a single charismatic face have again pushed it to the margins. Media reports of expulsion and counter-expulsion have damaged it.

The Final Picture:

Uttarakhand has 70 seats, majority mark 36. In 2017 BJP won 57, in 2022 BJP won 47 and Congress 19. The state has a history of never repeating a government till 2022, when BJP broke the myth. Will 2027 see history repeat or will BJP create history again with a hat-trick? The next five months will decide, but one thing is clear – Dhami vs a divided Congress quartet is the real battle of 2027.