Will Himachal go the Uttarakhand way, breaking a myth of change of governments after every five years ?
The assembly elections of Himachal Pradesh have been announced by the Election Commission of India. There will be a single day polling in the 68 assemblies of this Himalayan state on 12 th November. The election of much hyped campaigning state Gujarat has however not be declared.
This has annoyed opposition Congress as well the AAP who are hectically campaigning against the ruling party which seems to be of an defensive mode this time due to several factors especially all round inflation and an urge in voters for a change.
The Bhartiya Janata Party has been in power in Gujarat for the last 27 years since 1995. There seems to be a general feeling that change should come this time as rule of 27 protracted years have made the safron party and its rulers autocratic.
If we assess the elections of Himachal Pradesh – this state too is known for changing the incumbent government after every five years as was the trend in another Himalayan state – Uttarakhand but the myth were broken in 2017 assembly elections in not only Uttarakhand but in Uttar Pradesh as well with double engine governments trouncing back to power with good majority but slightly little less than its previous tallies.
In 2017 the Modi charisma still persisted and the religious polarisation factor, the BJP’s main plank during elections clicked tremendously. Moreover, the entire BJP election machinery with PM Modi and Home minister Amit Shah tightening their belts to ensure the victory of the saffron party at all costs did worked fully beyond anybody’s belief.
Even the full time campaigning of Priyanka Gandhi in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand to some extent didn’t brought any fruitful results with the party scoring victory on only one seat out of total 403 lawmakers.
In Uttarakhand which had always changed governments after five years broke the myth in 2017 with BJP coming back to power with 47 MLAs in the 70 member assembly surprising and shocking all Congressmen including turning down the predictions of several news analysts.
Though Uttarakhand is a small state as Himachal Pradesh with just five MPs in Lok Sabha and three Rajya Sabha MPs, the Bhartiya Janata Party had made it its prestigious issue and the prime minister Narendra Modi held 5 largely attended public meetings making announcement of various ambitious projects worth Rs 40 thousand crores.
The Home minister Amit Shah, Rajnath Singh, Defence minister, several CMs n national BJP leaders including its chief JP Nadda had tremendously highlighted the Muslim university issue blowing it out of proportion and finally staged a comfortable victory putting down Congress’s table upside down, breaking the myth of past twenty years that change is mandatory in Uttarakhand after every five years.
In Himachal Pradesh though the same pattern of change of governments after every five year seems to be a little advantageous factor for Congress – its vote collector or crowd puller Priyanka Gandhi has taken lot of meetings and assured jobs to unemployed youths if their government comes to power.
Rahul Gandhi being busy in his Bharat Jodo Yatra couldn’t make his presence in HP this time. However, what impact would his Bharat Jodo Yatra put in HP election prospects of Congress party remains to be seen. The Congress despite being an oldest party having ruled in HP for several years and contributed immensely in the state’s development lacks popular and experienced leaders after the death of its stalwart Veer Bhadra Singh.
Though fight in Himachal Pradesh is directly between Congress n BJP with the latter having some anti incumbency risks, the AAP is, also trying to make its inroads though it terribly failed in Uttarakhand.
There are reports of several news channels giving edge to BJP saying that the Modi charisma and Jairam Thakur’s good works will break the record of last 37 years and bring back the BJP government to power in Himachal Pradesh as happened in Uttarakhand.
On the other hand the state Congress chief and wife of the late former CM Virbhadra Singh deems to be annoyed with Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka complaining about these leaders not giving much time and attention to Himachal Pradesh elections.
She also complained of paucity of funds expressing sympathy towards him and Anand Sharma, who according to her are not being paid due attention and respect in the party, resulting in Azad leaving it and Anand Sharma sitting idle, politically. It may be recalled that the announcement of the assembly elections in Himachal Pradesh has kicked off an electoral cycle that will see state polls across seven large states over the next 18 months culminating in the general elections of 2024.
After Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat will go to polls this year followed by elections in Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Rajasthan and Telengana next year.
